Why Has Ethereum Maintained its Upward Momentum While Bitcoin Idles?

Ethereum lost over 3% on Monday, failing to flip $2k. It is currently grappling with notable selling pressure as the bulls are yet to stage any strong buybacks.

Away from the previous day’s decline, the asset has maintained its upward momentum over the last four weeks. Cumulatively, it gained over 23%, with its biggest gains happening in the week starting Jun 29, when it gained over 13%.

Over the last three weeks, it gained an average of 3%, flipping the $1,900 resistance for the first time in almost two months. However, the upward drive has waned over the last 24 hours. Nonetheless, there is growing optimism over how price action will unfold in the coming days.

Looking back, the apex altcoin is one of the best-performing assets in the top 10 over the last 30 days.  The chart below paints a clearer picture of what transpired over the last four weeks. It shows four assets: ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP.

The top line represents BNB, while the next depicts Ether’s price movement. Comparing all four lines, the second (from the top) had the sharpest rise. The other assets consolidated for most of the duration Ethereum surged.

It is clear that compared to this altcoin, the second-largest asset is the top gainer. However, one of the many questions that arises is whether it beats Bitcoin during this period.

Bitcoin Gained Over 9%

Bitcoin is off to one of its worst starts in the last five weeks, shedding over 2%. Its rise to $66k stalled at a few hundred dollars close to the mark. The bears took over, causing prices to plummet below $64k.

It retraced even lower a few hours ago, breaking below a key level it held over the last ten days. BTC dropped to a low of $62,680, losing the $63,650 support.

In hindsight, the apex coin has seen notable increases over the last four weeks. It gained over 9% during this period, hitting $66,921 last week. Nonetheless, its best performance happened in the week starting Jun 29.

While the largest altcoin saw notable increases over the last four weeks, a closer look at the chart shows its upward momentum slowed after its significant 6% hike. It is safe to conclude that it has idled over the last 21 days.

Comparing its movements with Ethereum’s, the apex coin trails behind in gains and volatility. The next unanswered question is why it’s important to pay attention to these events.

In recent times, it signalled the start of the altseason. It is worth noting that investors were eagerly anticipating this event.

Is it Altseason Yet?

While the first sign of altseason is Ethereum gaining significant figures over the largest coin, there are other boxes to tick.

Since cryptocurrencies became tradeable assets, there have only been two confirmed altseasons: 2017-2018 and 2020-2021. The major triggers for these events were unique technological shifts and massive retail liquidity.

For example, the 2017/18 surge was driven by initial coin offerings and Ethereum. Before this season, Bitcoin captured almost all the crypto market’s liquidity. However, investors realized that they could gain more profit trading altcoins.

DeFi was the main trigger and fuel for the 2020/21 altseason. Traders saw other assets to invest in, stacking up NFTs and enjoying other benefits associated with the new technology.

In both situations, innovations have taken center stage. Connecting these events to 2026, this important component is missing. It means that the current gains over Bitcoin do not signify that the altseason has started.

Interestingly, the Altcoin Season Index on CoinMarketCap also supports the assertion that the anticipated event has not started. However, something significant is happening. For the first time since April, the index has spent more than ten days above 50. It currently trends at 54.  It remains to be seen if this event will matter in the coming days.

Why is Ethereum Gaining?

There are several reasons for the notable increase. One such is exchange-traded funds, which have seen notable inflows over the last three weeks. Per data from SoSoValue, it posted a cumulative positive net inflow of $292 million. Given how previous outflows affected the asset, it is safe to conclude that the massive inflow is a fuel for the current uptrend.

Interestingly, data from CryptoQuant aligns with this assertion. The total Ethereum held by ETF firms has been declining for an extended period. However, the trend changed in the week starting Jun 29, coinciding with the massive price increases seen during that session. Between the 29th and Jul 23, total holdings surged from 5.29 million to 5.50 million.

Digging deeper, institutional interest in the asset grew during this period. Although the Coinbase premium did not flip positive, it surged to levels seen mid-June when prices recovered. In addition to the interest from institutions, the exchange reserves declined. In a nutshell, the second-largest asset captured significant liquidity, fueling the surge.

The retracements on Monday suggest that the upward momentum has waned. Although ETH is experiencing slight buybacks, the fear of further decline remains palpable, but two charts suggest a higher chance of further increases.

Ethereum Trades Above a Critical Level

On the 1-day scale, the ETH/USD pair is trading above the first pivot resistance. However, the bulls are yet to fully create strong demand concentration at the mark. Given previous movements, the likelihood of trading around this key level at $1,890.

Additionally, in recent times, $2k has functioned as tough support. The chances of flipping this critical mark within the next fourteen days are notable given that the bulls recently broke the liquidation cluster between $1,960 and $1,980.

Nonetheless, the path above $2,000 is not completely clear as the asset faced rejections at bollinger’s upper band on Monday. It also bounced off the middle band a few hours ago. Looking back, this is not the first time in the last fourteen days that it failed to break out from the bands. However, in previous occasions, it resumed its uptrend after bouncing off the mark.

If the trend repeats, ETH will flip $2k during its next attempt. Interestingly, the ETH/BTC pair also hints at what to expect in the coming days. With the altcoin gaining on Bitcoin, the pair is currently experiencing an uptrend.

A closer look at the chart above shows that it is yet to face significant resistance. The Fibonacci retracement level suggests the rejection will happen at the 50% mark. The pair is notably far from this level, which means Ethereum will continue gaining on the apex coin, aligning with previous assertions of further increases.